A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
