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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.