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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not received the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.