Daily Homicides in the nation Fall Over a Third Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Figures

The mean number of everyday killings per month in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative data. However, public safety analysts have warned that murder numbers could fail to signal better countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 murders a day in November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September of last year. This data was provided by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that have been recorded over these past months is very notable,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, noting that last month the smallest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the last decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime infighting, alongside the administration's heavily militarised efforts to take on the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her national security strategy for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President stated: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main pillars of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety researchers cautioned that relying on homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is notably true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Alright, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

Per the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, murders in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for assessing the reality of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the will to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using monthly means of everyday homicides was also concerning because it could obscure periods when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean makes surges of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for major offenses, according to official data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile killing of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the country to show their outrage at graft and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s very potent, socially it’s very problematic,” the analyst said.